Заведующий кафедрой Финансы и кредит С.К. Дубинин выступил на конфереции World Credit Rating Forum
Профессор Дубинин выступил 29 июня 2015 года с докладом на конференции World Credit Rating Forum (Пекин, Китайская Народная Республика).
Мероприятие было организовано совместно Universal Credit Rating Group, Xinhua News Agency и Dagong Global Credit Rating Group.
Тезисы выступления проф. Дубинина С.К.:
Extending attention to practices and experience of China`s rating agencies is natural. It is stimulating by unprecedented advance of the Chinese financial market. This year the Shenzhen stock index, which is heavy on tech, has more than doubled in value. In May 2015 trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges combined was more that on the NY Stock Exchange. The leading rating agencies Chengxin and Dagong started to provide intellectual services for foreign nations, banks and corporations. This is the international ratings process. However, the main target sphere of operations – the domestic financial market and local ratings. Chengxin agency in partnership with Moody`s Investors Service controls 38% of Chinese local rating market.
The further successive development of the rating agencies depends of demand on their services, which is linked with two basic factors:
First, the change of domestic capital market regulation. The task might be opening this market for the external foreign investors and issuers.
Second, the continental yuan/renminbi transformation reform. Domestic Chinese currency obtains the highest potential to become reserve currency unit. The free currency conversion on current and capital balance transactions would stimulate the initial and secondary public offers of shares or corporate bonds settlements.
Russian market players have a good experience of cooperation with Chinese rating agencies. Russian banks and corporations desire to receive the history of Chinese rating support – local and international. Russian corporations Gasprom; Gaspromneft; Gasprombank received international rating from the Chinese agency Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. Ltd in March 2015.
Business cooperation of Chinese and Russian entrepreneurs in the framework of One Belt One Way Program and EuroAsian Economic Union should open the new investment possibilities. Thus the demand for the rating agencies services will increase fustily intensively. The mutual trust of the market players would become the precondition of the business projects sustainability. Any Joint Venture or Special Purpose Vehicle will start with self-made due diligence or ratings research. In this context the experience of Dagong rating group is useful very much, it is participating in international group of companies – UCRG (China, USA and Russia).
The urgent question – can the investors rely on the local rating from the domestic agencies in their operations with the BRICS nations partners? Traditionally the international business is linked with the rating estimates of the most advanced US rating companies. In the same time the 2007-2009 years financial crisis has demonstrated the obvious weakness of the untransparent close methods of such rating estimates. It became an additional financial risk on a global market.
Certainly, the private national rating groups and it`s international cooperation will be the priority way to compete on the international market. The “Grand Trio” S&P; Moody’s; Fitch will be the potential partners and competitors on the market place.
May be any kind of international body should become a good decision how to make the rating service market more competitive. For example, the New Development Bank of BRICS can launch such multilateral international rating agency. The main task of those initiative might be not a commerce, but a new approach to the rating standards, the transparency of model and methodology of estimates and calculation. Any business will take a chance to compare the result of different agencies work and ask a number of questions about the rating benchmarks.
Sure, today is a proper time to discuss the future development of domestic and international rating system.
06 июля 2015